Dan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the august publication full time in 2016.\\n\\nA long-time financial journalist, Dan is a veteran of SmartMoney, MarketWatch, CBS MoneyWatch, InvestorPlace and DailyFinance. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Consumer Reports, Senior Executive and Boston magazine, and his stories have appeared in the New York Daily News, the San Jose Mercury News and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications. As a senior writer at AOL's DailyFinance, Dan reported market news from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and hosted a weekly video segment on equities.\\n\\nOnce upon a time \\u2013 before his days as a financial reporter and assistant financial editor at legendary fashion trade paper Women's Wear Daily \\u2013 Dan worked for Spy magazine, scribbled away at Time Inc. and contributed to Maxim magazine back when lad mags were a thing. He's also written for Esquire magazine's Dubious Achievements Awards.\\n\\nIn his current role at Kiplinger, Dan writes about equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, funds, macroeconomics and more.\\n\\nDan holds a bachelor's degree from Oberlin College and a master's degree from Columbia University.\\n\\nDisclosure: Dan does not trade stocks or other securities. Rather, he dollar-cost averages into cheap funds and index funds and holds them forever in tax-advantaged accounts. \"}; var triggerHydrate = function() window.sliceComponents.authorBio.hydrate(data, componentContainer); var triggerScriptLoadThenHydrate = function() var script = document.createElement('script'); script.src = ' -8-2/authorBio.js'; script.async = true; script.id = 'vanilla-slice-authorBio-component-script'; script.onload = () => window.sliceComponents.authorBio = authorBio; triggerHydrate(); ; document.head.append(script); if (window.lazyObserveElement) window.lazyObserveElement(componentContainer, triggerScriptLoadThenHydrate); else triggerHydrate(); } }).catch(err => console.log('Hydration Script has failed for authorBio Slice', err)); }).catch(err => console.log('Externals script failed to load', err));Dan BurrowsSocial Links NavigationSenior Investing Writer, Kiplinger.comDan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the august publication full time in 2016.
What's the Current Job Market for DM Spy Professionals Like
Central banks are stumbling into a nuanced phase of policy tightening after major macro events last week. Lower energy and goods prices are pulling down overall inflation. Yet tight job markets should keep wage growth above levels needed for core inflation to fall to 2% targets, reflected in a 54-year low for unemployment in the U.S. We see central banks close to pausing hikes: Major economies will see mild recessions but lingering inflation. We like short-term bonds and credit.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream as of Feb. 2, 2023. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point in the last 12-months, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, Refinitiv Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (U.S., Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, February 2023. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Turning toward 2023, the monetary policy tightening drag is building and central banks remain on the march. Of the 31 countries J.P. Morgan Research tracks, 28 have raised rates. There is likely more to come. Based on its current guidance, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have delivered a cumulative adjustment of close to 500 basis points (bp) on rates through the first quarter of 2023. Central bank activity is clouding the outlook for next year somewhat as the Fed, followed by other major central banks, is expected to pause hikes by the end of the first quarter of 2023.
The risk assessment team can use tools such as risk assessment matrices and heat maps to compare and, therefore, prioritize hazards. These tools allow safety professionals to place risks into the matrix or map based on the likelihood and severity of a potential incident. From there, decision-makers can analyze each risk to determine the highest-level risks to address.
Earlier identified hazards with HAZID can be included in preliminary hazard analysis. In such an analysis, an assessor analyzes current conditions with existing controls and a potential future state with proposed additional controls. Tools such as risk assessment matrices and heat maps can be used to compare, and therefore, prioritize hazards. These tools allow safety professionals to place risks into the matrix or map based on the likelihood and severity of a potential incident.
Taking this type of approach to risk analysis allows safety professionals to consider what additional IPLs could be installed to prevent a particular risk and calculate the impact that those controls would have on the severity and likelihood of an incident.
Sumsion is not alone in believing that getting exposure to markets and economic growth outside the US will likely offer attractive long-term opportunities. Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team forecasts that international stocks will outperform US stocks over the next 20 years. Indeed, they expect even mature, developed markets such as Europe to outperform the US over that time.
EMs have been defined as places where the actions of government policymakers may matter to investors at least as much as the rising and falling of the business cycle. That has meant that investing in them involved greater political, social, economic, and regulatory risks than investing in more developed markets. But today, developed market (DM) and EM economies alike are being shaped by governments' management of everything from monetary and fiscal policy to information technology regulation to relations with Russia, so EMs and DMs now may resemble each other more in this respect than they used to.
While they no longer hold a monopoly on policy risk, EM stocks are still likely to be potentially more volatile and less liquid than stocks from developed markets. But because they have not historically moved in lockstep with developed markets, they can help diversify investors' portfolios to help manage risk. Of course, diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
It's tempting for US investors to look away from the rest of the world and overlook the fact that stocks of companies from countries with good long-term prospects may present buying opportunities in 2023. After all, while inflation, war, and more will likely continue to vex international markets this year, the US economy still appears healthier than those of most other major countries, the dollar is strong, and any potential recession is expected to be short and shallow.
Futures prices of non-storable commodities can deviate significantly from spot prices because of anticipated changes in supply or demand. Suppose the market expected a reduced supply of eggs three months from now. The three-month futures price would be driven higher than the current spot price. Spot prices would not be affected because vendors cannot store the eggs (take them out of the spot market) to sell in the future. They must sell today's eggs based on today's market conditions. Conversely, if the market expected egg production to increase in three months, the futures price would be driven lower than the unchanged spot price.
Interpretation of futures prices is somewhat more complicated for storable commodities in which current inventories are low relative to current consumption needs. In these markets, we must make a distinction between two cases. If futures prices are lower than spot prices (a pricing structure termed backwardation) then the non-storable commodities analysis applies: The futures price provides the market's forecast of the future spot price. If futures prices are higher than spot prices (a contango market), then the analysis of storable commodities with large inventories applies.
If, on the other hand, supply is expected to be low in the future, expected future spot prices will be higher than the current spot price. The futures price could not go arbitrarily high above today's spot price, however, because arbitrageurs could buy \"cheap\" spot oil with borrowed money, sell oil futures contracts and store the oil for futur